Working Papers
How Social Structure Drives Innovation: Surname Diversity and Patents in U.S. History, with Jonathan Schulz and Joseph Henrich
We show that innovation in U.S. counties from 1850 to 1940 was propelled by shifts in the local social structure, as captured using the distribution of surnames. By leveraging quasi-random variation in counties' surname compositions---stemming from the interplay between historical fluctuations in immigration and local factors that attract immigrants---we find that more diverse social structures substantially increase both the quantity and quality of innovation. Analyses of the underlying mechanisms suggest that the relationship arises from an increase in the interactions among individuals with different skills, expertise and perspectives. These results support the view that the free flow of information between diverse minds is a key driver of innovation and played an important role in the emergence of the United States as a global innovation hub.
Media: Forbes
The Political Economy of Propaganda: Evidence from U.S. Newspapers, with Sebastian Ottinger
This study examines whether racial outrage in the media can result from the incentives of elites who seek to divide society for political gain, focusing on the late 19th century Southern United States. At this time, the Democratic Party had strong political incentives to incite racial outrage, and local Democratic elites exercised considerable influence over newspapers, the only mass media at the time. Using high-frequency historical newspaper data and a triple-difference estimation strategy, we find that Democratic elites orchestrated a racist propaganda campaign to sway white voters. Supporting analyses suggest that the propaganda benefited the Democrats in the subsequent election.
On the Importance of African Traditional Religion for Economic Behavior, with Lewis D. Butinda, Aimable A. Lameke, Nathan Nunn, and Raul Sanchez de la Sierra.
This study reveals that African traditional religions, often overlooked in economic analysis, can wield considerable influence over business choices and profitability. Our findings suggest that when certain religious rituals are made accessible to beer sellers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo who believe in their power, it significantly corrects their perceptions of theft risk, leading to improved business decisions and, ultimately, increased profits.
Do Disasters Affect the Tightness of Social Norms? new draft coming soon
I study the impact of exposure to large negative shocks on how strongly individuals pressure others to adhere to the local social norms. Combining data on the occurrences of conflicts, epidemics, and other natural disasters with large-scale survey data, I show that individuals surveyed in the weeks after a shock hits in their vicinity place more importance in norm adherence and exhibit a greater willingness to sanction norm deviations. Examining within-country variation in shocks experienced during early lifetime across cohorts, I find that the effect persists and is largest in countries with low state capacity. The results are consistent with a conceptual framework in which shocks raise the returns to social coordination, and therefore individuals respond by exerting more pressure on others to adhere to the local norms.
Work in Progress
Cultural Change: Evidence from Three Centuries of U.S. Local Newspapers
Innovation, the Church, and WEIRD Psychology, with Slava Savitskiy, Joseph Henrich, and Jonathan Schulz. [Slides]
Markets Make Humans WEIRDer: Evidence from 1850-1920 United States, with Itzchak Tzachi Raz